The Horizon: Adaptive Change
Week of 28 November 2025 - Signals: EU–Africa relations, G20 summit, workplace restructuring, and fiscal tightening in the UK
Top Signal: EU–AU Summit Signals Deepening Co-operation Between Europe and Africa
This week, the 7th EU–AU Summit, held in Luanda, Angola, brought together the leaders of the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) and produced a new joint declaration aimed at deepening cooperation across trade, migration, security, development, and governance. The summit reaffirmed commitments under the “Joint Vision 2030,” which is aimed at enhancing economic development, security, and sustainable growth. It renewed emphasis on multilateralism under international law, signaling a recalibration of Europe-Africa ties, with greater recognition of Africa not just as a developmental recipient, but as a strategic partner in geopolitics, resources, migration, and trade. Notably, the agenda included cooperation on critical minerals (relevant to global supply chains and the green transition), migration flows, security coordination, and sustainable development, positioning Africa as a central node in resource, trade, and geopolitical realignment. Moreover, to increase trust in the growing relationship with the continent, the Europeans have also formally signalled in the joint declaration their profound regret about “the untold suffering inflicted on millions of men, women and children as a result of the slave trade, colonialism and apartheid”. EU Council African Union
Key Signals
G20 Summit Concludes in South Africa: As noted last week, the G20 summit took place in Johannesburg, South Africa, the first time such a summit has been held in Africa. The group includes the world’s major economies, representing 85% of global Gross Domestic Product, over 75% of international trade, and about two-thirds of the world population. The outcome saw affirmed commitments to inclusive growth, sustainability, and a stronger voice for Global South economies, reinforcing multilateral dynamics amongst the world’s biggest economies. The momentum from this summit, combined with the EU–AU summit, suggests an ongoing trend in which global governance and economic architecture are being rebalanced in several ways away from traditional Western/Northern dominance toward an arguably more multipolar, multi-regional array of influence. G20
Global Workplace Restructuring: The global workforce continues to signal signs of restructuring as global businesses continue to cut jobs, especially in sectors like tech, as firms adapt to slower growth, macroeconomic uncertainty, and rising cost pressures. HP is the latest global company to announce significant layoffs, announcing its aim to eliminate between 4,000 and 6,000 jobs in order to save $1 billion over the next three fiscal years as it invests further in artificial intelligence. The move follows previous similar announcements by Amazon and Microsoft.
Moreover, recent data show sustained layoffs and rising concerns about “ghost working” and “ghost workloads” where employees mentally disengage, appearing busy but quietly job hunting during work hours, or take on increasing responsibilities without corresponding rewards or career advancement. All of this is happening at a time when the nature of work continues to shift, where remote and hybrid arrangements are being complemented by deeper integration of digital workflows and AI-mediated collaboration systems. WSJ Investopedia Forbes
UK: Fiscal Tightening, Redistribution, and Investor Signalling: This week, the UK government unveiled its 2025 Autumn Budget, confirming a significant fiscal tightening which is expected to reduce the current budget balance deficit from £28.8bn in 26/27 to a surplus of £24.6bn in 30/31. Net financial debt is expected to be 83.3% in 26/27, but 82.2% in 30/31. The UK is the world’s 6th largest economy. The Budget’s goal is to stabilise public finances, reduce living costs, and create fiscal space for social investment. However, some analysts caution that it will lead to lacklustre growth and stagnating living standards. Key measures include plans to better support entrepreneurs, retention of the corporate tax rate (the lowest in the G7), spending of 2.6% of GDP on defence by April 2027, higher taxes on investment income, pension relief cuts, a new mansion tax on properties over £2 million, and a multi-year income tax and national insurance threshold freeze. These are changes that effectively raise the tax burden for many middle-income earners. HM Treasury World Bank The Times
Systems Insight
When viewed together, this week’s key signals illustrate a cascading reconfiguration of international systems where governance, economics, labour markets, and fiscal regimes are driven by overlapping pressures that include geopolitical realignment, resource and supply-chain shifts, technological disruption, and fiscal stress.
The EU–AU Summit and G20 repositioning reflect an emerging systemic rebalancing of global governance and trade architecture where new nodes of influence (Africa, emerging markets) are becoming more prominent. This could reshape global supply chains,