The Horizon: Power Shifts, Policy Fog, and Democratic Shields
Week of 14 November 2025 - COP30, US monetary policy uncertainty, and strengthening democratic resilience in Europe
Top Signal: COP30: Progress Made, But Gaps Remain, Amid a Power Shift
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) began in Belém, Brazil, this week, amid mounting pressure on countries to increase their commitments to emissions cuts and climate finance. This week saw the conference focus on the health impacts of climate change, with the adoption of the Belém Health Action Plan with the aim of integrating health into climate strategies. Also, this week, 12 countries, including Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, and Spain, pledged to fight back against climate disinformation and to protect journalists, scientists, and researchers. There were also discussions on technological innovations that could help accelerate climate solutions. But the key signal from the UN this week was that the emissions curve has been bent downwards, but there still has not been enough progress to guarantee the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C. Significantly, there was also a reported shift in the centre of gravity of green-industrial power, where China’s industrial policy is increasingly driving global green energy solutions, at a time when the Trump administration in Washington is reportedly intending to withdraw the United States from the annual climate talks. The outcomes from this summit will shape the pace and credibility of global climate action for years. UN UN+1 UN+2 UNFCC NYT
Key Signals
US Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Officials at the US Federal Reserve are reportedly signalling less conviction on imminent rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and a still-robust labour market. Market expectations for cuts in December have now reportedly dropped below 50%. Meanwhile, the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown has ended, but the backlog and data fog will delay clarity on economic indicators, which may be a significant factor in December’s rate decision in the world’s largest economy. Reuters The Economic Times
EU Announces a Democratic Shield: This week, the European Commission unveiled a major package of measures to strengthen democratic resilience across member states and candidate countries. The move comes amid rising internal and external pressures, including disinformation campaigns from authoritarian states aimed at eroding public trust and fueling division. It is the bloc’s most comprehensive effort yet to counter information manipulation, disinformation, hybrid threats, and foreign electoral interference.
Building on the Digital Services Act and the AI Act, the plan introduces a European Centre for Democratic Resilience, a fact-checking network, and new election-observation protocols. It aims to increase defensive coordination among member states and candidates, bolster the media sector’s economic resilience, and enhance protections for journalists and politicians. The Democratic Shield is expected to be integrated into the EU’s 2028–2035 long-term budget.
For the business community, the Democratic Shield should be expected to strengthen the information and institutional environment they depend on by reducing disinformation risks, stabilising regulatory expectations, and creating an overall more predictable operating climate across the single market. EU Commission Alde
Systems Insight
These key signals that I am focusing on this week illustrate the entanglement of geopolitical power shifts, systemic risk interdependencies, and the governance adaptations underway that significantly define the contemporary global system’s political economy.
The COP30 summit in Brazil this week highlights an accelerating shift